In April 2022, the Taliban issued a sweeping ban on poppy farming across Afghanistan, prompting global anticipation about its potential impact[1]. This is not the first time Afghanistan's opium production has faced restrictions. A previous ban from 2000-2001 had limited to no impact on the global heroin supply due to the Taliban's quick ousting by the U.S.-led coalition and the subsequent ensuing chaos. This time, however, the Taliban has maintained the ban, and recent research such as that by Alcis and David Mansfield[2] highlights just how effective it has been.
The excellent research and reporting by Mansfield strongly evidences that as of July 2024, poppy cultivation in Afghanistan's key provinces has decreased dramatically, with only about 4,000 hectares cultivated, compared to nearly 202,000 hectares in 2022. Many experts are calling this the most successful counter-narcotics effort in history, and I would agree.
This leads to the pressing question: has the Taliban’s enduring ban led to a heroin shortage on the streets of the U.K.? Some argue that ample stockpiles of Afghan opium continue to supply markets, at least for now. However, recent data and trends suggest otherwise.
Rising Wholesale Prices and Decreasing Purity Levels
One significant indicator of a heroin shortage is the sharp increase in wholesale prices. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, a kilogram of heroin in the U.K. cost between £14,000 and £18,000. During the pandemic, despite the many national lockdowns, prices remained relatively stable and post-pandemic and at the start of 2022, prices had reduced to between £13,000 and £16,000 per kilogram. However, after the Taliban's edict, prices surged and currently range from £24,000 to £26,000 per kilogram. The sudden rise and continuing high prices are truly unprecedented.
Additionally, heroin purity in the U.K. has plummeted to unprecedented lows. Forensic data and anecdotal drug worker reporting indicate that purities have fallen. National average heroin purities which were consistently between 40% and 50% pre-2022, fell to mid 30% by Q2 of 2023 and are now below 30% in 2024. Heroin seized at the street level is now routinely found to be less than 20% pure, with many at less than 10%.
Dangerous Rise of Synthetic Opioids
In response to low heroin purity, synthetic opioids like fentanyls, nitazines, and xylazine are increasingly being found in powders that purport to contain heroin. These substances are highly potent—some can be 500 times stronger than heroin—making overdose risks extremely high. The U.K. government has responded by categorising xylazine as a Class C drug and 14 nitazines as Class A drugs[3]. The mixing process performed when these substances are added into powders is often imprecise resulting in “hot spots” that can lead to lethal overdoses. The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently reported a record 5,448 drug-related deaths in England and Wales for the year 2023, nearly half of which involved opioids[4].
Increased Violence Among Turkish Organised Crime Groups (OCGs)
There has also been a recent increase in violence among Turkish OCGs across Europe, likely tied to the tightening heroin supply[5]. In 2024 alone, high-profile, daylight assassinations and attempts have occurred in London, Barcelona, and Chișinău. These attacks are part of an increased wave of violence since the Taliban's 2022 ban, with previous incidents being witnessed in France and Greece.
Turkish OCGs have long controlled traditional heroin trafficking routes from Afghanistan through Turkey and into Europe with significant hubs at key locations. As the largest consumer within Europe per capita, the U.K. is considered a significant and highly profitable marketplace. Competition to control such lucrative markets is often fierce.
There are sizable Turkish communities within the U.K. and a concentration in North & East London that provide the connections and ‘cover’ to ease the flow of heroin into the marketplace. Although spates of ‘tit-for-tat’ violence has been evident between Turkish OCGs within London for some time the increased intensity and brazen manner is concerning.
Drop in Heroin Seizures Along Trafficking Routes
Data from law enforcement agencies further supports the notion of a shortage of heroin. In 2022, Turkey reported 8-tons of heroin seized, a 64% decrease from 22 tons in 2021. The European Union also noted a 19% reduction in seizures for the same period[6]. These numbers, though preliminary, could indicate a continuing trend of decreasing supply across major trafficking routes. The 2023 data will be telling.
Conclusion
Supply chain shortages are often felt sooner and most acutely at the end of any chain. As the U.K. is at the end of the heroin supply route from Afghanistan, it is likely to experience the effects before any other region.
The evidence points to a heroin shortage in the U.K. largely due to the Taliban's robust enforcement of their poppy cultivation ban. The impact on the U.K.'s heroin market is significant, with prices up, purity down, and synthetic opioids filling the void. This shortage has led to increased dangers for consumers and has likely fuelled violence among Turkish OCGs vying for limited supply. If current trends continue, we may see even more severe impacts on public health and serious crime in the coming months. I hope that I am mistaken.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-bans-drug-cultivation-including-lucrative-opium-2022-04-03/
[4]https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsrelatedtodrugpoisoninginenglandandwales/2023registrations
[5] https://www.occrp.org/en/scoop/spate-of-killings-in-europe-reveal-escalating-conflict-in-turkish-criminal-underworld
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